Trade would exceed US$700 billion by 2035, more than double the 2020 figure, according to the World Economic Forum.

Mexico City. For six decades, the dominant Asian power in Central America was not China, but Taiwan. But something has changed on the Asian power’s geopolitical chessboard in recent years, because the situation has been reversed.

Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador caused surprise with a diplomatic about-face, openly recognizing their ties with Beijing and leaving the Taiwan chapter behind. Costa Rica had gotten ahead of them back in 2007.

Although the Donald Trump administration tried to form an alliance against China, Beijing was able to deepen its presence in Central America and across much of Latin America and the Caribbean.

The World Economic Forum projects that trade between China and the Latin American region will rise to 700 billion dollars by 2035, twice the amount reported in 2020, and the total will surpass trade between the United States and the region.

In Mexico’s case, an estimated 15% of its trade will be with China, while for countries such as Peru, Brazil, and Chile, trade with the Asian country will exceed 40 percent.

For many years, China’s growing presence in the region went unnoticed by the United States. Even Costa Rica’s change of diplomatic status in favor of Beijing in 2007 did not set off many alarms at the time.

In 2000, China’s share of trade in Latin America was less than 2%. By 2035, it could reach 25 percent.

The first visit that then president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador received at his campaign headquarters from a foreign representative was from China’s ambassador.

Beijing preferred to wait a while before increasing its commercial ties with Mexico, but now that it has penetrated much of Latin America, its courtship of the López Obrador administration has grown, despite what the president himself said in his speech last Saturday at Chapultepec Castle, where he acknowledged China’s weight in the region. Plans to expand the Chinese presence in Mexico are becoming a reality.

President Biden is only analyzing China’s trade moves in Europe, not so much in Latin America.

Security

The Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University published a warning in May about Chinese power in Latin America.

The document includes the congressional testimony of Admiral Craig S. Faller, Commander of U.S. Southern Command, who identified China as the actor generating the greatest concern due to its ever-growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Source: El Economista