From 2002 to date, the Asian region has nearly doubled its share, reaching almost one-fifth of global external sales, while North America has fallen from 17.2% to 12.8%.
The members of the Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC, known as USMCA) have progressively eroded their combined share of the world’s total merchandise exports over the past two decades.
The corresponding coverage of these three countries fell from 17.2% in 2002 to 12.8% in 2021, according to data from the World Trade Organization (WTO).
In 2019, their share was 13.6%, so North America has also lost competitiveness recently. That was the year before the Covid-19 pandemic and also the year before the start of the T-MEC (USMCA), which entered into force on July 1, 2020, meaning it will mark two years this Friday.
By contrast, the region known as Greater China (the People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao) increased its slice of total merchandise exports from 10.3% in 2002 to 19.3% in 2021.
The People’s Republic of China has two special administrative regions — Hong Kong and Macao — and expects the international community to accede to its wishes regarding Taiwan and adhere to “one China” policies (which most countries have formally accepted), while Taiwan believes it should have international legitimacy because it is a democracy with economic power.
In addition, the integration of the T-MEC (USMCA) region into global value chains has been diminished by the United States’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP, predecessor of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — CPTPP, made up of 11 nations).
China, on the other hand, entered into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Cambodia, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand. And it applied to join the CPTPP.
The CPTPP and other regional trade agreements that do not involve the United States, such as the RCEP, may hurt U.S. trade with their members, since participants lower their trade barriers to other members but not to the United States, and may establish rules that do not align with U.S. interests.
Head to head
In particular, comparing 2002 with 2021, China increased its share of world merchandise exports from 5.1 to 14.1%, while Mexico’s corresponding slice fell from 2.5 to 2.3%, respectively.
The CPTPP involves three of the United States’ four main trading partners and may expand to other major economies, which could lead to greater economic integration and trade liberalization among the parties.
The United States follows China’s agreements with interest, because the two countries hold contrasting positions on matters such as state-owned enterprises and digital trade disciplines.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), trade policy had significant effects on the resilience of international trade during the pandemic. On average, trade covered by deep trade agreements declined 4 percentage points less than global averages.
One possible reason is that trade agreements whose scope goes beyond mutual market access concessions often reduce the uncertainty of cross-border transactions because they provide for stricter policy commitments, a more developed legal framework and enhanced regulatory convergence.
China had its best performance in global trade share in 2020, because it was the most resilient country in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic that year, while much of the rest of the world was severely affected by supply chain disruptions, plant closures and logistics problems.
Source: El Economista
